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This report the business cycle dating committee defines a recession as also available as a PDF file. At its meeting, the committee determined that a trough in business activity occurred in the U. The trough marks the end of the recession that began in December and the beginning of an expansion. The recession lasted 18 months, which makes it the longest of any recession since World War II. Previously the longest postwar recessions were those of andboth of which lasted 16 months. In determining that a trough occurred in Junethe committee did not conclude that economic conditions since that month have been favorable or that the the business cycle dating committee defines a recession as has returned to operating at normal capacity. Rather, the committee determined only that the recession ended and a recovery began in that month. A recession is a period of falling economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales.
There have been as many as 47 recessions in the United States dating back to the Articles of Confederationand although economists and historians the business cycle dating committee defines a recession as certain 19th-century recessions,  the consensus view among economists and historians is that "The cyclical volatility of GNP and unemployment was greater before the Great Depression than it has been since the end of World War II. The NBER defines a recession as "a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economylasting more than two quarters which is 6 months, normally visible in real gross domestic product GDPreal income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales". In the 19th century, recessions frequently coincided with financial crises. Determining the occurrence of preth-century recessions is more difficult due to the dearth of economic statisticsso scholars rely on historical accounts of economic activity, such as contemporary newspapers or business ledgers. Although the NBER does not date recessions beforeeconomists customarily extrapolate dates of U.
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The National Bureau of Economic Research NBER is an American private nonprofit research organization "committed to undertaking and disseminating unbiased economic research among public policymakers, business professionals, and the academic community. Poterba of MIT. The NBER was founded in Its first staff economist, director of research, and one of its founders was American economist Wesley Mitchell. He was succeeded by Malcolm C. Rorty in In the early s, Kuznets' work on national income became the basis of official measurements of GNP and other related indices of economic activity. The NBER's research activities are mostly identified by the business cycle dating committee defines a recession as research programs on different subjects and 14 working groups.
How many glaciers are there in the World? How much ice do they have? How much will they raise sea levels on full melting? How likely, and how quickly, will this happen? Glaciers and ice caps excluding the large Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets respond quickly to climate change, and are likely to dominate eustatic freshwater input from melting ice the business cycle dating committee defines a recession as to sea level rise over the next few decades. Despite their comparatively small area, glaciers contribute significantly to global sea level rise 1. But field campaigns to the ice are difficult, and in situ measurements of ice extent are time consuming, expensive, and cannot possibly be applied to all the glaciers in the world. Instead, we can use remote sensing of glaciers to estimate their size and volume. The Landsat programme, for example, has provided four decades of Earth imaging, meaning that we can analyse glaciers from to the present day.
The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas established the Globalization Institute in for the purpose of better understanding how the process of deepening economic integration between the countries of the world, or the business cycle dating committee defines a recession as, alters the environment in which U. Dallas Fed Community Development promotes financial stability and growth for low- and moderate-income households. Learn more, read our publications and check out our events. Through interactive exhibits and multimedia displays, learn about the Federal Reserve, money and the economy. Hashem Pesaran and Kamiar Mohaddes Abstract: The usefulness of the proposed approach is illustrated in an application to the analysis of the interactions between public debt and real output growth in a multi-country setting, and the results are compared to those obtained from standard single-country VAR analysis. We find that on average across countries global shocks explain about one-third of the long-horizon forecast error variance of output growth, and about one-fifth of the long-run variance of the rate of change of debt-to-GDP. Evidence on the degree of cross-sectional dependence in these variables and their innovations is exploited to identify the global shocks, and priors are used to identify the national shocks within a Bayesian framework.